Kenyans Should Brace For Tough Times, Millions To Fall Into Poverty – World Bank
Kenyans will face harsher economic times in the coming months, with up to 2.4 million additional people at risk of sliding into poverty by the end of 2026, according to the World Bank.
The World Bank warned that recent increases in the cost of food, transportation, and fuel could undo Kenya’s poverty-reduction successes, particularly in cities.
According to the bank’s most recent Kenya Economic Update, the Middle East crisis has exacerbated inflationary pressures by disrupting global energy markets and driving up fuel costs.
The lender, in its report released on Thursday, July 9, further disclosed that the increase in fuel prices has, in turn, pushed up the cost of transporting goods and services.
To sustain economic growth, reduce poverty, and make economic gains benefit more inclusive, Kenya must address pressing structural challenges.
🔗Learn more in Prosperous Kenya: Background Paper to the Kenya Country Growth and Jobs Report: https://t.co/c70lOaQZ58 pic.twitter.com/uyNEo9d7AM— World Bank Kenya (@WorldBankKenya) July 9, 2026
The report warns the conflict could raise Kenya’s poverty rate by 2 to 4.5 percentage points, pushing an additional 1 million to 2.4 million Kenyans below the international poverty line by the end of 2026.
Similarly, the Bretton Woods Institution noted that transport costs have remained elevated, rising by 10 per cent year-on-year in April 2026 before easing slightly to 9.8 per cent in June.
Food inflation also remained elevated at 8.8 per cent in April and 8.6 per cent in June, increasing pressure on household budgets.
Speaking during the report’s release, World Bank Lead Economist Tom Bundervoet warned that the prolonged effects of the conflict could significantly increase poverty levels in Kenya.
Kenya’s economy remained resilient in 2025, with real GDP growing by 4.6%, slightly below 4.7% in 2024.
Learn more in the latest Kenya Economic Update: Sustaining Macroeconomic Gains, Advancing Fiscal Reforms.
🔗Report 📚: https://t.co/4tLrB7WJ3v pic.twitter.com/zvwAWdsxDh— World Bank Kenya (@WorldBankKenya) July 9, 2026
“This conflict could push the poverty rate in Kenya by a certain number of percentage points, which then leads to one million or two million more Kenyans below the poverty line in absolute numbers,” Bundervoet said.
ALSO READ:
- REVEALED: Kenya’s Highest Tax-Paying Sectors As Revenue Hits Ksh2.8 Trillion
- Kenyans Should Brace For Tough Times, Millions To Fall Into Poverty – World Bank
- Dangote Lamu Refinery Project Set To Create 60,000 Jobs – Ruto
- KPLC Issues Statement On Mbeere North’s Missing Transformers After Ol Kalou Links
- OFFICIAL: Senator Edwin Sifuna Removed As ODM Secretary-General – ORPP
To cushion the country against the looming crisis, the World Bank called for faster creation of formal jobs, noting that Kenya’s labour market is failing to absorb the growing number of job seekers.
The lender said that although about 800,000 Kenyans enter the job market every year, only around 100,000 secure formal employment, leaving the majority in informal or low-paying jobs.
It argued that improving governance, reducing barriers to private investment and creating a more business-friendly environment would encourage companies to expand and create more quality jobs.
The World Bank also lowered its economic growth forecast for Kenya, projecting the economy will expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent in 2027, down from its earlier projection made in November last year.
Beyond the Middle East conflict, the World Bank identified climate-related shocks and growing political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 General Election as additional risks that could weigh on economic performance.
Kenyans Should Brace For Tough Times, Millions To Fall Into Poverty – World Bank
