EXPLAINER: Why Raila's Presidential Bid Failed FIVE Times

EXPLAINER: Why Raila’s Presidential Bid Failed FIVE Times

Dennis Onyango, the late Raila Odinga’s aide, has linked Raila’s repeated presidential election failures to a refusal to acknowledge the role of foreign interests in Kenyan politics.

During an interview with Citizen TV, Onyango argued Raila’s main political vulnerability was his inability to properly admit that Kenya’s political and economic reality is inextricably linked to the interests of major international actors.

According to Onyango, Raila was a firm believer in pursuing an independent political path, which occasionally put him at conflict with external individuals whose support or approval influenced political outcomes.

Onyango stated that significant political actors cannot afford to ignore the interests and views of influential foreign governments and international institutions.

Jeff: 2007, did you win?

Dennis Onyango: I think he won the elections. Throughout his political career Baba’s weakness was his refusal to understand that this country is not truly independent. You cannot do things your way in this country without factoring in what the outside… pic.twitter.com/4WjkTUE1XC— Citizen TV Kenya (@citizentvkenya) June 7, 2026

“I believe they do have a say here. I believe you can’t entirely ignore them,” he said.

Regarding the 2007 General Election, although Onyango was not working for Raila by then, he said he believes the ODM leader emerged victorious in the vote.

“I think he won. I think he won the election,” Onyango said of the disputed 2007 presidential contest between Raila and then late President Mwai Kibaki.

The former aide, however, argued that beyond the 2007 election, Raila’s broader political challenge over the years was his approach to international relations and diplomacy.

“The only thing in that election, and I think it is a thing that he never internalised throughout his political career and which I think was actually his biggest weakness, is the refusal to understand that this country is not really independent,” Onyango said.

Onyango said he repeatedly tried to convince Raila that winning over Kenyan voters alone was not enough for a presidential candidate seeking to govern in a globally interconnected environment.

“You need to sell yourself to Kenyans, but also sell yourself to the external world and assure them that they can do business with you,” he said.

Jeff: How well did you know Baba as a person?

Dennis Onyango: It was not possible to know Baba completely. He was a complicated man; different things to different people. I knew his thinking, vision, what he wanted for Kenya and Africa #CitizenSundayLive pic.twitter.com/eJ9MFnni8K— Citizen TV Kenya (@citizentvkenya) June 7, 2026

To illustrate his point, Onyango recalled Raila’s trip to the United Nations in 2009 when he was serving as Prime Minister in the Grand Coalition government.

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He said tensions within the coalition government extended beyond Kenya and even affected diplomatic engagements abroad.

According to Onyango, sections of Kenya’s diplomatic establishment in the United States sought to undermine Raila’s visit by leaking stories suggesting he would not secure a meeting with the then US President.

“I later realised that the stories were coming from our own diplomatic representation in the US and they were supposed to undermine Raila,” Onyango said.

He described the episode as one of the most challenging assignments he had handled while working for Raila.

Onyango’s assessment points to what he views as a strategic weakness in Raila’s approach to international power dynamics.

This is despite the fact that Raila’s supporters have often blamed electoral irregularities and political interference for his defeats,

EXPLAINER: Why Raila’s Presidential Bid Failed FIVE Times

Tags: Raila Odinga