Kenyans Warned Of Extreme Rainfall, Flood Risk As Long Rains Begin
According to a new climate study examining changes in East Africa’s rainfall patterns, heavy rainfall events in Kenya are expected to intensify, with extreme precipitation becoming more frequent.
The study, which was published in the Theoretical and Applied Climatology Journal last month, demonstrates how global warming is causing alterations in rainfall extremes, with significant ramifications for agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
🌧️ HEAVY RAINFALL ALERT! 🚨
— Kenya Met Department 🇰🇪 (@MeteoKenya) March 8, 2025
🔹 Update No.: 1 | Advisory No.: 01/2025
🔹 Validity: March 9 (3 PM) – March 11 (9 PM)
🔹 Urgency: Expected | Severity: Low–Moderate | Certainty: 33–66%
🌍 Areas Affected:
Heavy rainfall of more than 20mm in 24 hours is expected in:
✅ March 9:… pic.twitter.com/0nZbkCJLTz
“The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are also projected to increase with increased greenhouse gas emissions,” finds the study by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI).
Researchers warn that East Africa is likely to see “an increase in both the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events,” resulting in more frequent flooding.
Kenya’s changing rainfall patterns are consistent with recent seasonal forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
Both entities predict unpredictable and heavy rainfall throughout the next March-April-May (MAM) season.
Kenya Met’s newest Climate Outlook for the March-April-May (MAM) 2025 “Long Rains” season predicts near-to-above-average rainfall in some areas of the country.
These include western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, whereas northeastern Kenya and sections of the coast are likely to receive below-average rainfall.
Increased rainfall on Monday 10th March 2025 https://t.co/qiYEadn5sg pic.twitter.com/Fsy9dNYDcC
— Kenya Met Department 🇰🇪 (@MeteoKenya) March 8, 2025
“The season is likely to be characterised by a normal to late onset, with generally poor to fair distribution in both time and space,” the Met stated in its forecast.
This forecast is consistent with ICPAC’s findings, which show below-average rainfall across much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, and parts of Ethiopia and Eritrea.
“Below-average rainfall is expected over most of the Greater Horn of Africa, increasing concerns over water shortages and prolonged dry spells,” ICPAC reported in its seasonal climate forecast.
While estimates expect rainfall deficits in some areas, the climate study shows that when it does rain, it will be in more violent bursts.
“The increase in short-duration heavy precipitation events together with the enhanced pace of heat stress over the region will have critical implications for agriculture in general and local livestock production in particular,” the study warns.
These intense rainfall events have the potential to cause flash floods, wreak havoc on infrastructure, displace communities, and exacerbate the spread of waterborne diseases.
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“The models simulate extreme annual 1-day and 5-day cumulative precipitation events over Lake Victoria, eastern Congo, and Ethiopian highlands,” the study notes.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued an advisory for heavy rainfall.
— Kenya Red Cross (@KenyaRedCross) March 8, 2025
Residents in all the mentioned areas are advised to be on the lookout for potential floods and flash floods.
The Kenya Red Cross is prepared to offer prompt and supportive assistance, ensuring… pic.twitter.com/spnYRsXOci
It further stated that such circumstances are likely to worsen in high-emission scenarios.
Kenya’s history of rainfall variability has resulted in alternating droughts and floods, with major economic and humanitarian implications.
In 2024, terrible floods slammed through Nairobi and Kisumu, displacing hundreds. Scientists fear that as climate change progresses, such incidents will become more common.
Kenyans Warned Of Extreme Rainfall, Flood Risk As Long Rains Begin
