OPINION: Why Raila Is Likely To Lose AUC Chairmanship
According to Diplomatic Affairs analyst Ahmed Hashi, opposition leader Raila Odinga could lose his seat as chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) to Djibouti’s candidate Mahmoud Youssouf.
During an interview with Daybreak, Hashi discussed Raila’s chances of winning the seat after being endorsed by the East African Community (EAC) States.
The analyst predicted that the French government would intervene in the elections, persuading Francophone countries to unite and vote out Kenya’s candidate.
Hashi previously served as a spokesperson for Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
He touted Djibouti’s candidate as the favourite to win the seat by a landslide during the elections that will be held in Addis Ababa in February 2025.
Ahmed Hashi – Diplomatic Affairs Analyst: I think Raila Odinga will lose the AUC chair election in Addis Ababa. I will be shocked if he even gets a slim majority. The candidate from Djibouti is going to win #CitizenDayBreak @AyubAbdikadir pic.twitter.com/sgk1cGadCx
— Citizen TV Kenya (@citizentvkenya) August 28, 2024
“What is important is to look at the context of the African continent and the states and how we expect they’re going to behave towards Kenya’s candidate, Mr Odinga,” he said.
“I think Raila Odinga will lose the AUC chair election in Addis Ababa. I’m the only one who thinks that. I will be shocked if he even gets a slim majority. The candidate from Djibouti is going to win a landslide.”
He referred to the 2017 AUC elections, when Kenya’s candidate, former Foreign Affairs CS Amina Mohamed, lost to Chad’s Moussa Faki after seven rounds of voting.
During the elections, reports suggested that a last-minute change by Uganda, Djibouti, and Burundi resulted in Kenya losing its seat.
“The people in charge in these nations have fundamental influence from the Metropol. The AU is divided based on these fundamental tectonic plates and one of the biggest influence of the AU is the French,” Hashi noted.
“I was spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and we knew we were going to win and the French government intervened heavily in those elections and we lost.
“We even had the support of Djibouti, one of the people who stabbed us in the back in that elections. I think that is the same scenario that will happen in these elections. I think the French, Sahel areas and major states in Central Africa are going to stand up to candidature of Mr Odinga and say no,” he added.
The analyst questioned Raila’s decision to run for the seat at an age when he is approaching his 80s, claiming that the continent will require a vibrant and energetic leader to drive Africa’s agenda.
“I think this is the wrong move for Raila. In a continent where 80 per cent of the people is under 25, whether it serves the interest of the continent for us to have a man retiring in his 80s and whether he will have the energy vitality and gusto and do the necessary issues to be done about our youth.”
Raila will compete for the AUC seat against Youssouf of Djibouti, Anil Gayan of Mauritius, and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato.
The winner will need to secure 66% of the votes, which translates to 32 countries.
President William Ruto endorsed Raila and expressed confidence in the opposition leader’s ability to lead the continent to prosperity.
“I present to you a visionary Pan-African, a bold and wise leader, a professional and technocrat as well as a towering statesman and veteran mobiliser for positive change,” the president said.
“I am confident that he will give his utmost and do all it takes to make Africa proud and powerful.”
OPINION: Why Raila Is Likely To Lose AUC Chairmanship
